Use of direct-acting anticoagulants (DOACs) delays surgery and is associated with increased mortality in hip fracture patients.

PURPOSE: Treatment with direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) is increasing among hip-fracture patients, with accompanying safety concerns regarding spinal anesthesia (SA). The aim of this study was to investigate if DOAC use is associated with increased waiting time before surgery, increased mortality, or other adverse events. METHODS: Registry data on surgically treated hip-fracture cases at a single hospital between 2015 and 2021 were analyzed. Multivariable regression analyses were performed with DOAC-status and choice of anesthesia as exposures, and waiting time, length of stay, transfusion, and mortality as outcomes. RESULTS: 2885 cases were included, 467 patients (16%) were using DOACs. DOAC users were older (86.3 vs. 82.2 years, p < 0.001), had a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (2.1 vs. 1.5, p < 0.001) and had longer median time to surgery than non-DOAC cases (36 h vs 17 h, p < 0.001). General anesthesia (GA) was used in 19.3% of DOAC patients and in 3.0% of non-DOAC patients. DOAC-patients had an increased risk of one-month mortality (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 1.6 (1.1-2.3)) and one-year mortality (AOR 1.4 (1.1-1.8)). There were no differences in risk of blood transfusion. Patients on DOAC operated under GA had a lower risk of one-year mortality (AOR 0.5 (0.3-0.9)), but a similar one-month mortality to DOAC-patients operated under SA. CONCLUSION: DOAC users had a longer waiting time to surgery, indicating postponement of surgery due to concerns of the safety of SA. The clinical practice should be changed to allow earlier surgery for DOAC patients.

Effects of tapering conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs to drug-free remission versus stable treatment in rheumatoid arthritis (ARCTIC REWIND): 3-year results from an open-label, randomised controlled, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Tapering of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) to drug-free remission is an attractive treatment goal for patients with rheumatoid arthritis, although long-term effects of tapering and withdrawal remain unclear. We compared 3-year risks of flare between three conventional synthetic DMARD treatment strategies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in sustained remission. METHODS: In this open-label, randomised controlled, non-inferiority trial, we enrolled patients aged 18-80 years with rheumatoid arthritis who had been in sustained remission for at least 1 year on stable conventional synthetic DMARD therapy. Patients from ten hospitals in Norway were randomly assigned (2:1:1) with centre stratification to receive stable conventional synthetic DMARDs, half-dose conventional synthetic DMARDs, or half-dose conventional synthetic DMARDs for 1 year followed by withdrawal of all conventional synthetic DMARDs. The primary endpoint of this part of the study was disease flare over 3 years, analysed as flare-free survival and risk difference in the per-protocol population with a non-inferiority margin of 20%. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01881308) and is completed. FINDINGS: Between June 17, 2013, and June 18, 2018, 160 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive stable-dose conventional synthetic DMARDs (n=80), half-dose conventional synthetic DMARDs (n=42), or half-dose conventional synthetic DMARDs tapering to withdrawal (n=38). Four patients did not receive the intervention and 156 patients received the allocated treatment strategy. One patient was excluded due to major protocol violation and 155 patients were included in the per-protocol analysis. 104 (67%) of 156 patients were women and 52 (33%) were men. 139 patients completed 3-years follow-up without major protocol violation; 68 (87%) of 78 patients in the stable-dose group, 36 (88%) of 41 patients in the half-dose group and 35 (95%) of 37 patients in the half-dose tapering to withdrawal group. During the 3-year study period, 80% (95% CI 69-88%) were flare-free in the stable-dose group, compared with 57% (41-71%) in the half-dose group and 38% (22-53%) in the half-dose tapering to withdrawal group. Compared with stable-dose conventional synthetic DMARDs, the risk difference of flare was 23% (95% CI 6-41%, p=0·010) in the half-dose group and 40% (22-58%, p<0·0001) in the half-dose tapering to withdrawal group, non-inferiority was therefore not shown. Adverse events were reported in 65 (83%) of 78 patients in the stable-dose group, 36 (90%) of 40 patients in the half-dose group, and 36 (97%) of 37 patients in the half-dose tapering to withdrawal group. One death occurred in the stable-dose conventional synthetic DMARD group (sudden death considered unlikely related to the study medication). INTERPRETATION: Two conventional synthetic DMARD tapering strategies were associated with significantly lower rates of flare-free survival compared with stable conventional synthetic DMARD treatment, and the data do not support non-inferiority. However, drug-free remission was achiveable for a significant subgroup of patients. This trial provides information on risk and benefits of different treatment strategies important for shared decision making. FUNDING: Research Council of Norway and South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority.

Performance of the Rheumatoid Arthritis Impact of Disease (RAID) score in relation to flares in disease activity.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the performance of the EULAR-initiated patient-reported Rheumatoid Arthritis Impact of Disease (RAID) questionnaire in relation to flares in disease activity, including comparison with other disease activity outcomes. METHODS: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis in sustained remission were randomised to continued stable treatment or tapering in the ARCTIC REWIND project. In patients with flares within 12 months, we compared RAID (total score and components) at the flare visit with the visit prior to and the visit following flare, using Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Similar analyses were performed for patient global assessment, Disease Activity Score (DAS) and C reactive protein (CRP). The discriminative accuracies of RAID, patient global assessment, DAS and CRP with respect to disease activity flares were assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses based on logistic regression models. Flare was defined as a combination of DAS >1.6, a DAS increase ≥0.6 and ≥two swollen joints (of 44 examined) or could be recorded if patient and rheumatologist agreed that a clinically significant flare had occurred. RESULTS: In total, 248 patients were included in the analyses, with 56 flares. RAID, patient global assessment, DAS and CRP all changed significantly at the visits related to flare (p<0.001). Area under the curve (95% CI) values indicated that RAID (0.88 (0.83 to 0.93)) was significantly more accurate than CRP (0.76 (0.69 to 0.84)) in discriminating flare, and less accurate than patient global assessment (0.92 (0.87 to 0.97)) and DAS (0.94 (0.90 to 0.98)). The RAID components with highest and lowest discriminative accuracies were pain (0.91 (0.86 to 0.95)) and sleep (0.69 (0.59 to 0.79)). CONCLUSION: Disease activity flares were associated with a significant increase in median RAID, supporting its ability to respond to flare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01881308.

Follow-Up of Patients With Axial Spondyloarthritis in Specialist Health Care With Remote Monitoring and Self-Monitoring Compared With Regular Face-to-Face Follow-Up Visits (the ReMonit Study): Protocol for a Randomized, Controlled Open-Label Noninferiority Trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic inflammatory joint diseases such as axial spondyloarthritis have traditionally received regular follow-up in specialist health care to maintain low disease activity. The follow-up has been organized as prescheduled face-to-face visits, which are time-consuming for both patients and health care professionals. Technology has enabled the remote monitoring of disease activity, allowing patients to self-monitor their disease and contact health care professionals when needed. Remote monitoring or self-monitoring may provide a more personalized follow-up, but there is limited research on how these follow-up strategies perform in maintaining low disease activity, patient satisfaction, safety, and cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: The Remote Monitoring in Axial Spondyloarthritis (ReMonit) study aimed to assess the effectiveness of digital remote monitoring and self-monitoring in maintaining low disease activity in patients with axial spondyloarthritis. METHODS: The ReMonit study is a 3-armed, single-site, randomized, controlled, open-label noninferiority trial including patients with axial spondyloarthritis with low disease activity (Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score <2.1) and on stable treatment with a tumor necrosis factor inhibitor. Participants were randomized 1:1:1 to arm A (usual care, face-to-face visits every sixth month), arm B (remote monitoring, monthly digital registration of patient-reported outcomes), or arm C (patient-initiated care, self-monitoring, no planned visits during the study period). The primary end point was disease activity measured with the Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score, evaluated at 6, 12, and 18 months. We aimed to include 240 patients, 80 in each arm. Secondary end points included other measures of disease activity, patient satisfaction, safety, and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The project is funded by the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority and Centre for the treatment of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Diseases (REMEDY), Diakonhjemmet Hospital, Norway. Enrollment started in September 2021 and was completed with 242 patients by June 2022. The data collection will be completed in December 2023. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this trial will be among the first to evaluate the effectiveness, safety, and cost-effectiveness of remote digital monitoring and self-monitoring of patients with axial spondyloarthritis compared with usual care. Hence, the ReMonit study will contribute important knowledge to personalized follow-up strategies for patients with axial spondyloarthritis. These results may also be relevant for other patient groups with inflammatory joint diseases. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05031767; hpps://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05031767. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/52872.

Effect of tapered versus stable treatment with tumour necrosis factor inhibitors on disease flares in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in remission: a randomised, open label, non-inferiority trial.

OBJECTIVES: Many patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) require treatment with tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) to reach remission. It is debated whether tapering of TNFi to discontinuation should be considered in sustained remission. The aim of ARCTIC REWIND TNFi was to assess the effect of tapering TNFi to withdrawal compared with stable treatment on the risk of disease activity flares in patients with RA in remission ≥1 year. METHODS: This randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial was undertaken at nine Norwegian rheumatology departments. Patients with RA in remission ≥12 months on stable TNFi therapy were allocated by computer-based block-randomisation to tapering to discontinuation of TNFi or stable TNFi. Conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic co-medication was unchanged. The primary endpoint was disease flare during the 12-month study period (non-inferiority margin 20%), assessed in the per-protocol population. RESULTS: Between June 2013 and January 2019, 99 patients were enrolled and 92 received the allocated treatment strategy. Eighty-four patients were included in the per-protocol population. In the tapering TNFi group, 27/43 (63%) experienced a flare during 12 months, compared with 2/41 (5%) in the stable TNFi group; risk difference (95% CI) 58% (42% to 74%). The tapering strategy was not non-inferior to continued stable treatment. The number of total/serious adverse events was 49/3 in the tapering group, 57/2 in the stable group. CONCLUSION: In patients with RA in remission for more than 1 year while using TNFi, an increase in flare rate was reported in those who tapered TNFi to discontinuation. However, most regained remission after reinstatement of full-dose treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: EudraCT: 2012-005275-14 and clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01881308.

Discontinuation of Conventional Synthetic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis and Excellent Disease Control.

This open-label randomized clinical trial assessed the 12-month risk of disease activity flares after discontinuation of conventional synthetic DMARDs (csDMARDs) compared with continuing half-dose csDMARDs in adult Norwegian patients with rheumatoid arthritis and excellent disease control.

Identification of SNPs associated with methotrexate treatment outcomes in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis.

Methotrexate is one of the cornerstones of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) therapy. Genetic factors or single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are responsible for 15%-30% of the variation in drug response. Identification of clinically effective SNP biomarkers for predicting methotrexate (MTX) sensitivity has been a challenge. The aim of this study was to explore the association between the disease related outcome of MTX treatment and 23 SNPs in 8 genes of the MTX pathway, as well as one pro-inflammatory related gene in RA patients naïve to MTX. Categorical outcomes such as Disease Activity Score (DAS)-based European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) non-response at 4 months, The American College of Rheumatology and EULAR (ACR/EULAR) non-remission at 6 months, and failure to sustain MTX monotherapy from 12 to 24 months were assessed, together with continuous outcomes of disease activity, joint pain and fatigue. We found that the SNPs rs1801394 in the MTRR gene, rs408626 in DHFR gene, and rs2259571 in AIF-1 gene were significantly associated with disease activity relevant continuous outcomes. Additionally, SNP rs1801133 in the MTHFR gene was identified to be associated with improved fatigue. Moreover, associations with p values at uncorrected significance level were found in SNPs and different categorical outcomes: 1) rs1476413 in the MTHFR gene and rs3784864 in ABCC1 gene are associated with ACR/EULAR non-remission; 2) rs1801133 in the MTHFR gene is associated with EULAR response; 3) rs246240 in the ABCC1 gene, rs2259571 in the AIF-1 gene, rs2274808 in the SLC19A1 gene and rs1476413 in the MTHFR gene are associated with failure to MTX monotherapy after 12-24 months. The results suggest that SNPs in genes associated with MTX activity may be used to predict MTX relevant-clinical outcomes in patients with RA.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality in rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis and axial spondyloarthritis: a nationwide registry study.

OBJECTIVES: To explore mortality and causes of death among Norwegian patients with RA, PsA and axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) compared with the general population by conducting a nationwide registry-based cohort study. METHODS: Patients with RA, PsA and axSpA were identified from the Norwegian Patient Registry based on ICD-10 codes between 2008 and 2017. Using age as the time variable, all-cause and cause-specific mortality were estimated between 2010 and 2017 with the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the cumulative incidence competing risk method, respectively. Sex-, education level-, health region- and age group-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality were estimated using Cox regression models. RESULTS: We identified 36 095 RA, 18 700 PsA and 16 524 axSpA patients (70%, 53% and 45% women, respectively). RA and axSpA were associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR 1.45 [95% CI: 1.41, 1.48] and HR 1.38 [95% CI: 1.28, 1.38], respectively). Women but not men with PsA had a slightly increased mortality rate (HR 1.10 [95% CI: 1.00, 1.21] among women and 1.02 [95% CI: 0.93, 1.11] among men). For all patient groups as well as for the general population, the three leading causes of death were cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms and respiratory diseases. RA patients had increased mortality from all of these causes, while axSpA patients had increased mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. CONCLUSION: Even in the era of modern treatments for IJDs, patients with RA and axSpA still have shortened life expectancy. Our findings warrant further attention to the prevention and management of comorbidities.

Inflammation and biologic therapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis achieving versus not achieving ACR/EULAR Boolean remission in a treat-to-target study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate limiting factors of American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/EULAR Boolean remission in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and compare patients who fulfil the criteria to patients who only partly fulfil the criteria, with respect to imaging inflammation and biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug (DMARD) usage. METHODS: Patients with DMARD-naïve RA were treated according to current recommendations in the the ARCTIC trial (Aiming for Remission in rheumatoid arthritis: a randomised trial examining the benefit of ultrasound in a Clinical TIght Control regimen). Limiting factors of reaching ACR/EULAR Boolean remission at 2 years were assessed. Imaging inflammation (ultrasound and MRI) in patients in remission was compared with patients failing to fulfil different components of the criteria. The OR of biologic therapy was calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 203 patients, 112 (55%) reached ACR/EULAR Boolean remission; 49 (24%) fulfilled three of four criteria. The main limiting factors were patient global assessment (PGA) (59%) and tender joints (22%). Imaging inflammation was not significantly different for patients in remission and patients not fulfilling the criteria due to elevated PGA and/or tender joints, but higher odds of using biologics (OR 3.63, 95% CI 1.73 to 7.61) were observed. CONCLUSIONS: PGA and tender joints were the factors most often limiting achievement of ACR/EULAR Boolean remission. The level of imaging inflammation was not elevated in these patients compared with patients in remission, but the odds of using biologic DMARDs were higher.

Serious infections in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis treated with tumour necrosis factor inhibitors: data from register linkage of the NOR-DMARD study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence of serious infections (SIs) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) treated with tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi), and compare risk of SIs between patients with RA and PsA. METHODS: We included patients with RA and PsA from the NORwegian-Disease Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drug registry starting TNFi treatment. Crude incidence rates (IRs) and IR ratio for SIs were calculated. The risk of SIs in patients with RA and PsA was compared using adjusted Cox-regression models. RESULTS: A total of 3169 TNFi treatment courses (RA/PsA: 1778/1391) were identified in 2359 patients. Patients with RA were significantly older with more extensive use of co-medication. The crude IRs for SIs were 4.17 (95% CI 3.52 to 4.95) in patients with RA and 2.16 (95% CI 1.66 to 2.81) in patients with PsA. Compared with the patients with RA, patients with PsA had a lower risk of SIs (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.85, p=0.004) in complete set analysis. The reduced risk in PsA versus RA remained significant after multiple adjustments and consistent across strata based on age, gender and disease status. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with patients with RA, the risk of SIs was significantly lower in patients with PsA during TNFi exposure.

Fatigue in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis undergoing treat-to-target therapy: predictors and response to treatment.

OBJECTIVES: Fatigue is a frequent symptom in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and has high impact on quality of life. We explored associations between disease activity and fatigue in patients with early RA during the initial 24 months of modern treat-to-target therapy and predictors of fatigue after 24 months of follow-up. METHODS: Data were obtained from the treat-to-target, tight control Aiming for Remission in Rheumatoid Arthritis: a Randomised Trial Examining the Benefit of Ultrasound in a Clinical Tight Control Regime (ARCTIC) trial. Fatigue was measured on a visual analogue scale (VAS) from 0 to 100 mm and defined as clinically relevant if VAS was ≥20 mm. Baseline predictors of fatigue at 24 months were analysed by multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: 205 patients with fatigue data at baseline and 24 months were included. Median (25th, 75th percentiles) symptom duration was 5.4 months (2.8, 10.4), fatigue VAS 37.0 mm (13.0, 62.0) and mean Disease Activity Score (DAS) 3.4 (SD 1.1) at baseline. Prevalence of fatigue declined from 69% at baseline to 38% at 24 months. Fewer swollen joints (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.98, p=0.006), lower power Doppler ultrasound score (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.99, p=0.027) and higher patient global assessment (PGA) (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.04, p<0.001) increased the risk of clinically relevant fatigue at 24 months. Not achieving remission at 6 months was associated with a higher risk of reporting fatigue at 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: Fatigue in patients with early RA was prevalent at disease onset, with a rapid and sustained reduction during treatment. Low objective disease activity and high PGA at baseline were predictors of clinically relevant fatigue at 24 months.

Effect of Half-Dose vs Stable-Dose Conventional Synthetic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs on Disease Flares in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis in Remission: The ARCTIC REWIND Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Sustained remission has become an achievable goal for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) receiving conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs), but how to best treat patients in clinical remission remains unclear. Objective: To assess the effect of tapering of csDMARDs, compared with continuing csDMARDs without tapering, on the risk of flares in patients with RA in sustained remission. Design, Setting, and Participants: ARCTIC REWIND was a multicenter, randomized, parallel, open-label noninferiority study conducted in 10 Norwegian hospital-based rheumatology practices. A total of 160 patients with RA in remission for 12 months who were receiving stable csDMARD therapy were enrolled between June 2013 and June 2018, and the final visit occurred in June 2019. Interventions: Patients were randomly assigned to half-dose csDMARDs (n = 80) or stable-dose csDMARDs (n = 80). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was the proportion of patients with a disease flare between baseline and the 12-month follow-up, defined as a combination of Disease Activity Score (DAS) greater than 1.6 (threshold for RA remission), an increase in DAS score of 0.6 units or more, and at least 2 swollen joints. A disease flare could also be recorded if both the patient and investigator agreed that a clinically significant flare had occurred. A risk difference of 20% was defined as the noninferiority margin. Results: Of 160 enrolled patients (mean [SD] age, 55.1 [11.9] years; 66% female), 156 received the allocated therapy, of which 155 without any major protocol violations were included in the primary analysis population (77 receiving half-dose and 78 receiving stable-dose csDMARDs). Flare occurred in 19 patients (25%) in the half-dose csDMARD group compared with 5 (6%) in the stable-dose csDMARD group (risk difference, 18% [95% CI, 7%-29%]). Adverse events occurred in 34 patients (44%) in the half-dose group and 42 (54%) in the stable-dose group, none leading to study discontinuation. No deaths occurred. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with RA in remission taking csDMARD therapy, treatment with half-dose vs stable-dose csDMARDs did not demonstrate noninferiority for the percentage of patients with disease flares over 12 months, and there were significantly fewer flares in the stable-dose group. These findings do not support treatment with half-dose therapy. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01881308.

MicroRNA Expression Differences in Blood-Derived CD19+ B Cells of Methotrexate Treated Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a complex disease with a wide range of underlying susceptibility factors. Recently, dysregulation of microRNAs (miRNAs) in RA have been reported in several immune cell types from blood. However, B cells have not been studied in detail yet. Given the autoimmune nature of RA with the presence of autoantibodies, CD19+ B cells are a key cell type in RA pathogenesis and alterations in CD19+ B cell subpopulations have been observed in patient blood. Therefore, we aimed to reveal the global miRNA repertoire and to analyze miRNA expression profile differences in homogenous RA patient phenotypes in blood-derived CD19+ B cells. Small RNA sequencing was performed on CD19+ B cells of newly diagnosed untreated RA patients (n=10), successfully methotrexate (MTX) treated RA patients in remission (MTX treated RA patients, n=18) and healthy controls (n=9). The majority of miRNAs was detected across all phenotypes. However, significant expression differences between MTX treated RA patients and controls were observed for 27 miRNAs, while no significant differences were seen between the newly diagnosed patients and controls. Several of the differentially expressed miRNAs were previously found to be dysregulated in RA including miR-223-3p, miR-486-3p and miR-23a-3p. MiRNA target enrichment analysis, using the differentially expressed miRNAs and miRNA-target interactions from miRTarBase as input, revealed enriched target genes known to play important roles in B cell activation, differentiation and B cell receptor signaling, such as STAT3, PRDM1 and PTEN. Interestingly, many of those genes showed a high degree of correlated expression in CD19+ B cells in contrast to other immune cell types. Our results suggest important regulatory functions of miRNAs in blood-derived CD19+ B cells of MTX treated RA patients and motivate for future studies investigating the interactive mechanisms between miRNA and gene targets, as well as the possible predictive power of miRNAs for RA treatment response.

Value of MRI and ultrasound for prediction of therapeutic response and erosive progression in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis managed by an aggressive treat-to-target strategy.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate if inflammation detected by MRI or ultrasound at rheumatoid arthritis (RA) onset is predictive of erosive progression or poor response to methotrexate monotherapy, and to investigate if subclinical inflammation in remission is predictive of future treatment escalation or erosive progression. METHODS: In a 2-year study, 218 patients with disease-modifying antirheumatic drug-naïve early RA were treated by a tight-control treat-to-target strategy corresponding to current recommendations. MRI and ultrasound were performed at regular intervals. Baseline imaging-based inflammation measures were analysed as predictors for early methotrexate failure and erosive progression using univariate and multivariate regression adjusted for clinical, laboratory and radiographic measures. In patients in remission after 1 year, imaging measures were analysed as predictors of treatment escalation and erosive progression during the second year. The added value of imaging in prediction models was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analyses. RESULTS: Baseline MRI inflammation was associated with MRI erosive progression and ultrasound with radiographic erosive progression. No imaging inflammation measure was associated with early methotrexate failure. Imaging inflammation was present in a majority of patients in clinical remission. Tenosynovitis was associated with treatment escalation, and synovitis and tenosynovitis with MRI/radiographic erosive progression during the second year. Imaging information did not improve prediction models for any of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Imaging-detected inflammation, both at diagnosis and in remission, is associated with elements of future disease development. However, the lack of a significant effect on prediction models indicates limited value of systematic MRI and ultrasound in management of early RA.